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ECO043 Quarterly Economic Update: October to December 2025 (923 words)
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Description
Our latest quarterly economic update includes commentary on the US attack on Venezuela, Christmas retail performance, interest rate outlook, equity markets, fuel prices, Trump's tariff policies and the weak US dollar.
Introduction
The December quarter has been defined by unexpected twists. Just as we thought inflation was under control, it kicked back up. Just as rate cuts seemed certain for 2026, we're now facing the prospect of rate rises. And just as geopolitical tensions appeared to be settling, the US launched a stunning military operation in Venezuela. Through it all, Australian households held their nerve — spending up at Christmas and keeping the economy ticking over.
The US Attack on Venezuela and Market Implications
On 3 January 2026, the USA conducted Operation Absolute Resolve — a military strike on Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The operation, involving more than 150 aircraft, bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela and transported Maduro to New York to face narcoterrorism charges.
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